Case Example

Validation of revenue forecast of a injectables contract manufacturer as an acquisition target

Client Challenge

The client, a leading global pharmaceutical player was evaluating an acquisition in the Indian injectables contract manufacturing space

The Management wanted to undertake a comprehensive molecule level assessment of the Target’s revenue forecast and understand the overall market dynamics and competition assessment for each molecule

Our Approach

● Shortlisted molecule for assessment and evaluated market dynamics for each molecule
- Shortlisted molecules which contributed more than 70% to total revenues
- Estimated the current market size in volume and value for each molecule
- Identified the leading players in each molecule and their competitive position
● Studied the estimated market growth and Target’s revenue forecast
- Estimated the market growth for next 5 years
- Identified the levers for growth and studied therapeutic category growth
- Studied Target’s growth forecast estimate by business segment to understand the assumptions
● Revised the Target’s revenue forecast based on historic trend and estimated market dynamics
- Revised the revenue forecast of the Target company keeping in mind historic trend, estimated market dynamics, future market growth
- Also built in the effect of a possible temporary reduction in growth due to the acquisition

Our Impact